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Thoughts on Things in August

Last Friday, August 6th, we received July's jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) which solidified investor fear and drove many from the market on Friday. However, despite mixed economic reports and recovery concerns, the markets managed to build on their recent gains in July. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.8% for the week, the S&P 500 added 1.8% and the Nasdaq gained 1.5%.

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Dog Days of Summer

As we enter the 2nd half of the year, optimism that greeted the year has evaporated and investors around the world are questioning the strength of the economic recovery. European sovereign debt troubles that have surfaced have now clouded views on the sustainability of global economic growth.

So what's going on? It's not just one thing, it's an accumulation of them. Fears of a second recession (double dip) are more ...

Imperfect Pictures of Improvement

Consumer Confidence swooned in February from January. The drop from 56.5 to 46 was far sharper than economists were expecting. The drop was largely due to changing attitudes about the jobs market and the pace of economic improvement according to the Conference Board. Not to editorialize (but we will), the people they interviewed to reach this conclusion must more ...

Jan. 26, 2010: Open Letter

(Reprint of Jan. 26, 2010 E-Newsletter)

Dear Investor:

This past week's market action was like riding a see-saw. We go way up...then way down. However, unlike an actual see-saw, it wasn't much fun for investors. There was concern about China reigning in their bank lending so that their property markets don't overheat (and that's a bad thing?) Note: don't more ...

4th Quarter Economic and Market Outlook

recovery, interest rates, inflation, Muni bonds, global perspective & more

Here is our monthly perspective on events and trends affecting the economy, the financial markets, and investment management. First, let's take a look at an interesting chart and commentary from Morgan Stanley's chief European market strategist, Mr. Teun Draaisma, as to how much further the stock market could rally. We'll take a more ...

Thoughts on July's Unemployment Report

The employment report was delivered right on time on the first Friday of the month. Most economists were expecting a better report this month than last or the one before that. While earlier this year the job-loss number had been trending from -550,000 toward -750,000, the last two months had shown drops and were below -443,000 last month. The best guesses for Friday’s number were around -275,000 until the ADP Employment Report more ...

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