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4th Quarter Economic and Market Outlook

recovery, interest rates, inflation, Muni bonds, global perspective & more

Here is our monthly perspective on events and trends affecting the economy, the financial markets, and investment management. First, let's take a look at an interesting chart and commentary from Morgan Stanley's chief European market strategist, Mr. Teun Draaisma, as to how much further the stock market could rally. We'll take a more ...

Looking Back at the 1981-82 Recession

It was 27 years ago last week that the market hit its bottom in the 1981-1982 bear market. That market had seen stock prices fall to rock bottom valuations and yet, no one wanted to own stocks that summer. To think, Philip Morris at 6 times earnings and yielding 8%. The environment then was horrendous. Interest rates on long-term Treasury bonds were still at 12%, down from 15% in late 1981. The prime rate had fallen to 17% more ...

Warren Buffet's Advice

Did you follow Warren Buffett's advice last year to buy American stocks? In that now famous October 17, 2008 Op-Ed piece in the New York Times, Buffet shared his simple rule for buying stocks: "Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful." Certainly at that time fear had gripped the markets and investors were fleeing equities into cash.

Well if you did buy at that time, then you are one of the few, the proud, and the bold value more ...

Thoughts on July's Unemployment Report

The employment report was delivered right on time on the first Friday of the month. Most economists were expecting a better report this month than last or the one before that. While earlier this year the job-loss number had been trending from -550,000 toward -750,000, the last two months had shown drops and were below -443,000 last month. The best guesses for Friday’s number were around -275,000 until the ADP Employment Report more ...

Does the Market Rally Have Legs to It?

That is a good question, and in a similar vein it is like asking if Santa is for real. Well...kind of. Christmas is a time of gift giving, and the market rebound has offered us some gifts as well. It now appears that we have moved away from the Armageddon scenario of last year, and are rebuilding, be it ever so slowly. With the markets on the right trajectory as of recent, it seems safe to come out of our bunkers again. The rocky more ...

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