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Eric Linser, CFA | Mar. 2, 2011
Answer: Political protests!
While each participant has different political agendas, the commonality I see is contagion, or the spread of unrest.
In the Mid-West, particularly Wisconsin, a battle rages over public sector finances. Elected officials are pushing to eliminate or weaken collective bargaining by government employees' unions with the more ...
Eric Linser, CFA | June 4, 2010
The Leak Continues, Job Numbers Disappoint
Along the California coast, Memorial Day doesn't mark the beginning of hot weather but a long bout of foggy days ahead. In my home of San Francisco, it marks the beginning of Mark Twain's winter (as in, "The coldest winter I ever spent was summer in San Francisco.") Similarly, the fog has been so dense that visibility to the market's future direction has been more ...
Sell in May and Go Away (until St. Leger's Day)
Eric Linser, CFA | May 10, 2010
Or as I remember it some years ago, Sell in May and Go Away; Come November, Here to Stay. No matter how it's phrased, the adage seems to be ringing true this year. Could a simple calendar event be just that easy? (FYI - St. Leger's Day is a horse race held in England in mid-September)
It's based on the notion that the more ...
Eric Linser, CFA | April 12, 2010
(an article on the US stock market and technology shares)
Will April showers bring May flowers? Or, for investors, will first quarter earnings reports be enough to justify the market's positive strides made in March, and in the first quarter? We will soon find out, beginning in earnest this week.
Spring is upon us and April is typically a month of market bloomers that lays the groundwork for the spring more ...
1 year anniversary of the market bottom, & the sustainability of the market's rally is addressed
Eric Linser, CFA | March 6, 2010
Happy Anniversary! If this is the Year of the Golden Tiger (not Woods!) then last year was the Year of the Bull. We should pop open the Champagne because we are a year past the market more ...
Eric Linser, CFA | March 3, 2010
(an article on the US stock market and technology shares)
February Marks Markets' Best Month Since November
The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended up 2.6% for February, the Nasdaq added 4.2% for the month and the S&P 500 gained 2.9%. The S&P 500 gain for February put a dent in its 3.7% January decline. Eight of the ten sectors were up for the month, with Consumer Discretionary leading the group more ...
Eric Linser, CFA | Feb. 4, 2010
(an article on the US stock market and technology shares)
It was not the kind of start to the New Year for which investors were hoping. In January, a winter chill settled over the markets and we had our first major sell-off since the "reflective" rebound in stocks in March 2009. The major indexes and many asset classes ended the month lower.
Despite the Federal Reserve's confidence in the recovery, more ...
Eric Linser, CFA | Jan. 12, 2010
(an article on the US stock market and technology shares)
Welcome to the New Year (two thousand ten, or twenty-ten?). As we quickly look back on last month and last year and look ahead to January, we believe the main focus of the market for the month will be 4th quarter earnings reports (starting this week) and corporate guidance given for the year ahead. Quite often the market softens in the weeks preceding the more ...
Eric Linser, CFA | Dec. 2, 2009
November was another good month for the markets (since the bottom in March), continuing a series of positive months, save one -- October -- which was a slightly down month. Despite the recent drop Thanksgiving week, the stock market ended the month of November with big gains. Major stock indexes were up more than 5%, the best monthly performance since July. The S&P 500 increased 5.7% and the Nasdaq more ...
Eric Linser, CFA | Nov. 2, 2009
Overall Market Sentiment
The month of October, and in particular the last week of the month, was the pause in the seven month rally in the S&P 500 that most investors have been expecting for some time. The increased level of investor skepticism after the best run in stocks since the 1930's is understandable given that a widely-expected improvement in 3rd quarter earnings did not propel stocks forward more ...
More than one way to grow earnings
Phil Diamond, CFA | Nov. 2, 2009
"It's operating leverage, stupid!" There are more ways to grow earnings than growing revenues.
We are getting quite tired of hearing again and again that it isn't sound growth if it isn't based on revenue growth. Well, we all like to see revenues growing, but sometimes that isn't an option and growing the bottom line can happen even when the top line isn't growing as fast more ...
Eric Linser, CFA | Oct. 1, 2009
The improving Street sentiment, including seven straight monthly advances in the S&P 500, is still being driven by the improving economy. The read-through from the economic data released in September and the results from some bellwether stocks that reported during the month (FedEx, Oracle) was that "the worst is behind us" and that overall demand is beginning to lift. The weight of the recovery evidence is increasingly more ...
Eric Linser, CFA | Sept. 9, 2009
The doldrums of summertime were all but that as Wall Street extended its gains from its early March lows. Stock markets, domestically and internationally, continued their winning ways. For the month of August, the S&P 500 rallied 3.4%, Nasdaq rallied 1.5%, the MSCI World Index was up 3.9% (in US dollar terms), while the MSCI Emerging Markets Index lost 0.5% (in US dollar terms). Year to date (through the end of August), the more ...
Recently, we were reminded of just how unpredictable the market can be. And while we can't really control the market, we can remember some basic fundamental truths1 that will help us weather any storm.
Twelve fundamental truths of investing
1. Over the long term, stocks have had greater total returns than bonds.
2. Over the long term, bonds have had greater total returns than money market funds.
3. On average, stocks are much riskier than more ...
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